Friday, December 15, 2006

Maybe Maybe Maybe

So I was reading a few video games industry bits today and I just got tired of it. Nobody says anything affirmative or insightful anymore. For example everybody seems to be very bipolar about the Wii controller. One says it is a gimmick that is working to capture the mass market, the other says it is the way of the future that everybody will emulate. The fact is that the controller is a good pointing device like a mouse is for the PC, but it becomes quickly awkward when the user has to move the camera and point at something, yet nobody says this. It's all maybe maybe.

Maybe the Wii will win this generation because of it's innovative controller.
Maybe the 360 will win because it is an all rounder and is pushing things like connectivity, video on demand, exstensability to make into new areas at a wim and indie development into new directions.
Or maybe the PS3 will win because the PS2 sold 112 million units and that means the PlayStation brand carries weight.

Less and less do I see insightful commentary like This (and click link on page). So here is what I will do, I will make some predictions and reasonings because I am annoyed nobody else will.

The Wii will sell better than the GC and with every console sold because Nintendo is making a profit will put Nintendo in a better position for generation eight, but the Wii will ultimately sell badly towards the end of this generation because of the lack of third party support just like the N64 and just like with the GC. Without the powerful graphics chip capable to handle direct ports from the PS3 or 360 it won't even get cheap licence titles as publishers don't don't see the Wii as worth the investment.

The 360 will continue to do well this generation as the XBox did last, but will fail to do well in Japan. Microsoft launching in japan without a sound product was a mistake and they will be paying for that into the next generation. But Microsoft's attacks into the areas of online and their efforts in making their platform open to indie developers will reap bountiful rewards to struggling studios, thus helping Microsoft in the long term. Microsoft will come second with about 40 million units sold. And further more will entre generation eight in an even stronger position.

The PS3 despite no reason (what so ever) will do well this generation possibly winning, but with a significant unit loss from what the PS2 sold.

I will most likely be completely wrong, but at least I am committing to something and not debating bipolar phantom issues like gameplay over graphics which is BS because everybody knows a game isn't fun without gameplay and will put people off if it is ugly.