In Oblivion you could lockpick by the sound of the tumblers rising, but this isn't possible in Skyrim. You need to keep looking at the tip of the pick (see screenshot).
If you are on an area of resistance the end of the pick will judder. You need to probe around the lock until you find an area of smooth motion with the pick. Once you have found it, don't rotate the lock all at once. Rotate it gradually, always looking at the end of the pick. If you find an area of resistance, release, move the pick slightly and start turning again. Apply this technique and you will be able to break even master level locks with a low level character.